Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Tessa Hodge vs Jay Obernolte
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 94% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.4 (10th pctile) to R+3.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.3
80% CI: R +35.4 → R +3.3 · win prob 6%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +21.3
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.1
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?” | 14¢ | 86¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet4
3
Endorsements tracked
Tessa Hodge4 · 57%
Jay Obernolte3 · 43%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DTessa Hodge4 endorsers
Most notable · California Democratic Party
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- California Democratic Party
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Progressive Victory
- Track AIPAC
RJay Obernolte3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- California Republican Party
- Log Cabin Republicans
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-17Jay ObernolteH0CA08135 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$668.1K
Cash on hand
$1.5M
Debts
$1.1M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tessa Hodge
Receipts
$66.0K
Disburse
$55.5K
Cash on hand
$10.5K
Debts
$3.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$278.4K
D side
$18.7K · 7%
R side
$259.7K · 93%
Top spender
AMERICAN MISSION
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN MISSION other · boosts R
| R | $259.7K | 93% | for Jay Obernolte |
| WORKING CLASS HEROES FUND other · boosts D
| D | $18.7K | 7% | against Jay Obernolte |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-17
Endorsements7 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks