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Races · house · 2026 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Sean Dougherty vs Peter Verbica

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe DD +30.9 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% Dougherty (D)
1% Verbica (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +30.9 · 80% CI D+14.8 → D+47.0 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 94¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+30.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+14.8 (10th pctile) to D+47.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +30.9
80% CI: D +14.8 → D +47.0 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +36.0
80% CI D +28.3 → D +43.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.1
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the CA-19 House seat?”
94¢3¢-1¢—+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
3Dougherty · 100%
DSean Dougherty3 endorsers
Most notable · Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
Organizations3
RPeter Verbica0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-20
Sean DoughertyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$136.0K
Disburse
$127.0K
Cash on hand
$6.0K
Debts
$113.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Peter VerbicaOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$68.8K
Disburse
$50.8K
Cash on hand
$18.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$599.3K
D side
$599.3K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Panetta $599.3K

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-20
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks