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Races · house · 2026 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Adam Gray vs Vin Kruttiventi

← California houseCalifornia house →
Lean DD +3.9 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
62% Gray (D)
38% Kruttiventi (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +3.9 · 80% CI R+12.2 → D+20.0 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 89¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 18d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 62% D · market gap 30pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 92%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.2 (10th pctile) to D+20.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 62% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 62%, market says 92% — 30pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-large
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.9
80% CI: R +12.2 → D +20.0 · win prob 62%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +2.5
80% CI R +2.0 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.4
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 89¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
60¢70¢80¢90¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the CA-13 House seat?”
85¢11¢+0¢—-4
Kalshi
“CA-13 House winner?”
92¢14¢+4¢$0K+4
Polymarket sits 4¢ below consensus.

Endorsements · 11 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
11Gray · 100%
DAdam Gray11 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations11
RVin Kruttiventi0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-23
Adam GrayH2CA13115 ↗
Receipts
$3.6M
Disburse
$2.0M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Vin KruttiventiOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$54.7K
Debts
$2.3M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$52.8K
D side
$3.3K · 6%
R side
$49.5K · 94%
Top spender
INDIGO PAC
For / against split
For Gray $3.3K
Against Gray $0
For Lincoln $49.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
INDIGO PACD$2.3K4%for Adam Gray
THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTYD$990.542%for Adam Gray

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D1
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jun 17
The Economist
Likely D
May 5
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 18, 2026Lean Dmodel
Jun 17, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 14, 2026Lean Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
+ 1 earlier change
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-23
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks