Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
California house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+39) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+46.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+30.8 (10th pctile) to D+63.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +46.9
80% CI: D +30.8 → D +63.0 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +68.8
80% CI D +24.5 → D +77.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat?” | 95¢ | 2¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 18 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet18
Endorsements tracked
Lateefah Simon18 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total18
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLateefah Simon18 endorsers
Most notable · Bay Area Reporter
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- California Working Families Party
- Center for Biological Diversity · Action Fund
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Elect Democratic Women
- Giffords
- J Street
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Sierra Club
- Track AIPAC
- Vote Mama
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Bay Area Reporter
- Sun-Reporter
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-27Lateefah SimonH4CA12154 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$861.3K
Cash on hand
$687.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$111.6K
D side
$111.6K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Protect Progress
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protect Progress other · boosts D
| D | $111.6K | 100% | for Lateefah Simon |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Lateefah Simon |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-27
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks