Races · house · 2026 · California
house · open seat
Mark DeSaulnier vs Angela Griffiths
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+31.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.1 (10th pctile) to D+47.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +31.2
80% CI: D +15.1 → D +47.3 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +36.0
80% CI D +28.3 → D +43.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +10.5
80% CI D +8.9 → D +12.1
CV MAE 1.24
consensusMarket-implied
D +17.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 96¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the CA-10 House seat?” | 96¢ | 6¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 29 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet29
Endorsements tracked
Mark DeSaulnier29 · 100%
Angela Griffiths0 · 0%
Total29
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMark DeSaulnier29 endorsers
Most notable · Hakeem Jeffries · House Minority Leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
Elected officials19
Federal 16State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 19
- Hakeem Jeffries · House Minority Leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
- Katherine Clark · House Minority Whip (2023–present) from MA-05 (2013–present)
- Nancy Pelosi · former speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) from CA-11 (1987–present)
- Steve Glazer · former state senator from the 7th district (2015–2024)
- Tim Grayson · state senator from the 9th district (2024–present)
- Rob Bonta · attorney general of California (2021–present)
- Ayanna Pressley · MA-07 (2019–present)
- Doris Matsui · CA-07 (2005–present)
- Jamie Raskin · MD-08 (2017–present)
- Jared Huffman · CA-02 (2013–present)
- Kevin Mullin · CA-15 (2023–present)
- Mike Thompson · CA-04 (1999–present)
- Pete Aguilar · CA-33 (2015–present)
- Rosa DeLauro · CT-03 (1991–present)
- Zoe Lofgren · CA-18 (1995–present)
- Adam Schiff · California (2024–present)
- Alex Padilla · California (2021–present)
- Eric Swalwell · former CA-14 (2013–2026)
- George Miller · former CA-11 (1975–2015)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- California Democratic Party
- California Environmental Voters
- California Federation of Labor Unions
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- J Street PAC
- National Union of Healthcare Workers
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- Bay Area Reporter
- The Independent
RAngela Griffiths0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09Mark DeSaulnierH0CA10073 ↗
Receipts
$515.1K
Disburse
$516.2K
Cash on hand
$627.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Angela Griffiths
Receipts
$9.4K
Disburse
$2.6K
Cash on hand
$6.8K
Debts
$1.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Mark DeSaulnier |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-09
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks