Races · house · 2026 · Arizona
house · open seat
Adelita Grijalva vs Daniel Butierez
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+26.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+10.0 (10th pctile) to D+42.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +26.1
80% CI: D +10.0 → D +42.2 · win prob 98%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +26.0
80% CI D +20.3 → D +38.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +1.3
80% CI R +2.2 → D +4.8
CV MAE 2.73
consensusMarket-implied
D +16.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the AZ-07 House seat?” | 95¢ | 6¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Adelita Grijalva10 · 100%
Daniel Butierez0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAdelita Grijalva10 endorsers
Most notable · Emily's List
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- Emily's List
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- J Street
- League of Conservation Voters
- Our Revolution
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Track AIPAC
RDaniel Butierez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-11-20Adelita GrijalvaH6AZ07121 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$384.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Daniel Butierez
Receipts
$223.5K
Disburse
$203.1K
Cash on hand
$21.1K
Debts
$144.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$448.8K
D side
$448.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
WORKING FAMILIES PA…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $231.0K | 51% | for Adelita Grijalva |
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $80.0K | 18% | for Adelita Grijalva |
| LCV Victory Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $60.0K | 13% | for Adelita Grijalva |
| America's Future Project PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $34.5K | 8% | for Adelita Grijalva |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 5
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-11-20
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks