Races · house · 2026 · Arizona

house · open seat

Arizona house

← Arizona house Arizona house →

Safe DD +34.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
99% Ansari (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Yassamin Ansari99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +34.7
80% CID+18.6 → D+50.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +34.7 · 80% CI D+18.6 → D+50.8 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 95¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+22) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+34.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+18.6 (10th pctile) to D+50.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +34.7

80% CI: D +18.6 → D +50.8 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +44.9

80% CI D +34.5 → D +54.0

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

D +1.3

80% CI R +2.2 → D +4.8

CV MAE 2.73

consensusMarket-implied

D +15.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat?”	95¢	2¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 6 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

6Ansari · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Yassamin Ansari6 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DYassamin Ansari6 endorsers

Most notable · AAPI Victory Fund

Organizations6

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-03-05

Yassamin AnsariH4AZ03109 ↗

Receipts

$1.2M

Disburse

$699.4K

Cash on hand

$529.0K

Debts

$70.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.4K

D side

$3.4K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

WESTERN STATES REGI…

For / against split

For Ansari $3.4K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WESTERN STATES REGIONAL COUNCIL OF CARPENTERS LEGISLATIVE IMPROVEMENT CMTE UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS & JOINERS OF AMERICA	D	$3.4K	100%	for Yassamin Ansari

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

The Economist

Safe D

May 5

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Tossupmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-03-05

Endorsements6 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks