Races · house · 2026 · Arkansas

house · open seat

Robb Ryerse vs Steve Womack

← Arkansas house Arkansas house →

Safe RR +24.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
2% Ryerse (D)
98% Womack (R)
Win probability
Robb Ryerse2% (D)
Steve Womack98% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +24.7
80% CIR+40.8 → R+8.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +24.7 · 80% CI R+40.8 → R+8.6 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 7¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 98% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.8 (10th pctile) to R+8.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +24.7

80% CI: R +40.8 → R +8.6 · win prob 2%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +28.5

80% CI R +36.5 → R +21.5

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the AR-03 House seat?”	7¢	93¢	-2¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 5 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

3Ryerse · 60%
Womack · 40%2
Endorsements tracked
Robb Ryerse3 · 60%
Steve Womack2 · 40%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DRobb Ryerse3 endorsers

Most notable · Ted Lieu · CA-36 (2015–present)

Organizations2

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

RSteve Womack2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · President of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Steve WomackOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$1.5M

Disburse

$970.6K

Cash on hand

$2.3M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Robb RyerseOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$88.3K

Disburse

$83.7K

Cash on hand

$4.6K

Debts

$1.1K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

The Economist

Safe R

May 5

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.