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Races · house · 2026 · Arkansas
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Chris Jones vs French Hill

← Arkansas houseArkansas house →
Safe RR +19.7 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
6% Jones (D)
94% Hill (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +19.7 · 80% CI R+35.8 → R+3.6 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 12¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 94% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.8 (10th pctile) to R+3.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.7
80% CI: R +35.8 → R +3.6 · win prob 6%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +21.3
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.3
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 12¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
5¢10¢15¢20¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?”
12¢89¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 11 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
4Jones · 36%
Hill · 64%7
RFrench Hill7 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 3State 3Local 0
Organizations1
DChris Jones4 endorsers
Most notable · Lottie Shackelford · former mayor of Little Rock (1987–1988)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 1
Organizations2

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-25
French HillH4AR02141 ↗
Receipts
$3.8M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$2.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris JonesOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$798.2K
Disburse
$683.8K
Cash on hand
$114.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$418.1K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$418.1K · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
For / against split
For Hill $418.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSR$418.1K100%for French Hill

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe R
May 5
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Likely R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-25
Endorsements11 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks