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Races · house · 2026 · Alabama
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Terri Sewell vs Jerry Carl

← Alabama houseArkansas house →
Safe DD +24.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
97% Sewell (D)
3% Carl (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +24.6 · 80% CI D+8.5 → D+40.7 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 91¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.5 (10th pctile) to D+40.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.6
80% CI: D +8.5 → D +40.7 · win prob 97%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +26.0
80% CI D +20.3 → D +38.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +12.5
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 91¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
70¢80¢90¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the AL-07 House seat?”
91¢10¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 12 candidates with no endorsements yet
2Sewell · 100%
DTerri Sewell2 endorsers
Most notable · Alabama Realtors PAC
Organizations2
RJerry Carl0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DClyde Jones0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DShomari Figures0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RHampton Harris0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLee McInnis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Rogers0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRobert Aderholt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAmanda Pusczek0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAndrew Sneed0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDale Strong0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGary Palmer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKeith Pilkington0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Terri SewellOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$3.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
Apr 23
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks