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Races · house · 2026 · Alabama
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Amanda Pusczek vs Robert Aderholt

← Alabama houseAlabama house →
Safe RR +45.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Pusczek (D)
99% Aderholt (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +45.6 · 80% CI R+61.7 → R+29.5 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 5¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+33) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+45.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+61.7 (10th pctile) to R+29.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +45.6
80% CI: R +61.7 → R +29.5 · win prob 1%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +67.7
80% CI R +84.7 → R +49.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +17.0
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 5¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?”
5¢94¢-1¢—+0

Endorsements · 4 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Aderholt · 100%4
RRobert Aderholt4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations3
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
DAmanda Pusczek0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Robert AderholtOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$832.3K
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$776.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Amanda PusczekOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$13.8K
Disburse
$12.3K
Cash on hand
$-56.02
Debts
$6.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe R
May 6
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks