Races · house · 2026 · Alabama
house · open seat
Alabama house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 51% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts tied with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.4 (10th pctile) to D+15.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 51% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement65
12.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution65 / 100
Measured12.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +0.3
80% CI: R +16.4 → D +15.8 · win prob 49%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.6
80% CI D +7.8 → D +20.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +4.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 30¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?” | 30¢ | 70¢ | +4¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 1 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Hampton Harris1 · 100%
Total1
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RHampton Harris1 endorser
Most notable · Dick Brewbaker · former state senator from the 25th district (2010–2018)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Dick Brewbaker · former state senator from the 25th district (2010–2018)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-01Hampton Harris
Receipts
$214.7K
Disburse
$9.3K
Cash on hand
$205.4K
Debts
$221.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$27.9K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$27.9K · 100%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- The Economist · Jun 3
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely RThe Economist
TossupInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
54 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles54
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.11
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.50 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.11
Week-over-weekshift −0.50 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 11%
Neutral 89%
11% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets11%
Neutral89%
R-leaning outlets0%
11% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
Alabama House Seat Election Challenge Gençlerbirliği - Trabzonspor (CDkY3wbCPy)
A
GOP educator looks to flip solidly Democratic Alabama US House seat: ‘How long do these people have to wait?’
M
Alabama Primary Runoff Elections Set For Tuesday Ufc White House (hdRao7WPuO)
A
Alabama’s new $400 million State House expected to be ready by November election
M
Shomari Figures Wins Heated Battle For Alabama House District Andrey Rublev (RJBncsOAnb)
N
Alabama First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Alabama U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
M
“This Is Anti-Black.” SCOTUS Lets Alabama Erase Shomari Figures’ District While People Are Voting. Carter Hart (XxXoiqQTPD)
N
Alabama Governor Election 2026: Latest Polls
A
Trump endorses Carl, Marques in Alabama congressional races
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Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements7 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks