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Likely RR +12.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
16% (D)
84% (R)
Win probability
Democrat16% (D)
Republican84% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +12.5
80% CIR+28.6 → D+3.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +12.5 · 80% CI R+28.6 → D+3.6 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Momentum
Now—
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now3.8%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
D 14¢
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
NowD 14¢
Window362 points
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now—
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 12d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified
Safe R · model 84% R
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe R (D win prob 11%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.6 (10th pctile) to D+3.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 84% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
1 polls · through Jun 29, 2026 · latest The New York Times/Siena University
Nick Begich
VoteHub51.0%
VoteHub
Polling average51.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Matt Schultz
VoteHub39.0%
VoteHub
Polling average39.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 29, 2026): Nick Begich 51.0%, Matt Schultz 39.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.