NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · West Virginia
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Jim Umberger vs Derrick Evans

← Wisconsin houseWest Virginia house →
Safe RR +51.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Umberger (D)
99% Evans (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +51.7 · 80% CI R+63.7 → R+39.7
Actual result R+40.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+22) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+51.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+63.7 (10th pctile) to R+39.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +51.7
80% CI: R +63.7 → R +39.7 · win prob 1%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+40.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDerrick Evans0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJim Umberger0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IWes Holden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-01
Derrick EvansH4WV01058 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jim UmbergerOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$80.2K
Disburse
$72.3K
Cash on hand
$7.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$4.0K
Electric utilities$3.3K
Top contributors
LONE PINE CAPITAL$6.6K
NOTHWELL HOSPITAL$4.0K
CON EDISON$3.3K
BSH HOME APPLIANCES$1.5K
WVSOM$1.0K
Wes HoldenOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$54.9K
Disburse
$54.5K
Cash on hand
$416.54
Debts
$10.2K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$500
Top contributors
VANDERBILT UNIV. MED. CTR.$985.06
LEGAL AID OF WEST VIRGINIA$500
FRONTIER$200

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$40.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$40.0K · 100%
Top spender
DEFEATING COMMUNISM…
For / against split
For Evans $40.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEFEATING COMMUNISM PACR$40.0K100%for Derrick Evans

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 1
Elections Daily
Safe R
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks