Races · house · 2024 · Wisconsin
house · open seat
Peter Barca vs Roger Roth
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.9 (10th pctile) to R+22.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +34.9
80% CI: R +46.9 → R +22.9 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+14.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRRoger Roth0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPeter Barca0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-15Roger RothH4WI08085 ↗
Receipts
$776.2K
Disburse
$776.2K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$19.8K
Internet · $19.8K
- Oh Snap Pickling LLC · $19.8K
Individuals $19.8K · PACs $0
Real estate$13.3K
Real estate · $13.3K
- Continental Properties Company INC. · $13.3K
Individuals $13.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
OH SNAP PICKLING LLC$19.8K
OMNI GLASS PAINT$16.6K
HAS COMMERCIAL$16.5K
ULINE$16.5K
FIDUCIARY MGT.$13.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.7M
D side
$183.9K · 11%
R side
$1.5M · 89%
Top spender
ELECT PRINCIPLED VE…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELECT PRINCIPLED VETERANS FUND (EPV FUND) super pac · boosts R
| R | $917.5K | 56% | for Roger Roth |
| SPEAK FREE OR DIE PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $551.6K | 33% | for Roger Roth |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- CNalysis · Aug 17
- The Cook Political Report · Sep 5
- Decision Desk HQ · Oct 6
- Elections Daily · Aug 25
- Inside Elections · Jun 19
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 30
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-15
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks