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Races · house · 2024 · Wisconsin
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Elsa Duranceau vs Tom Tiffany

← Wisconsin houseWisconsin house →
Safe RR +33.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Duranceau (D)
99% Tiffany (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +33.0 · 80% CI R+45.0 → R+21.0
Actual result R+27.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.0 (10th pctile) to R+21.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.0
80% CI: R +45.0 → R +21.0 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+27.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RTom Tiffany0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DElsa Duranceau0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-10
Tom TiffanyH0WI07101 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$175.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
INCREDIBLE BANK$19.8K
KLONDIKE CHEESE$13.2K
JACK LINKS$13.2K
TRIBE$13.1K
ASHLEY FURNITURE INDUSTRIES, INC.$9.9K
Elsa DuranceauOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$10.1K
Disburse
$9.4K
Cash on hand
$173.07
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
GLARINGLY OBJECTIVE AUDIT TAX$900

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$28.9K
D side
$14.4K · 50%
R side
$14.6K · 50%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIGHT TO L…
For / against split
For Kilbourn $14.4K
For Tiffany $14.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$8.3K29%for Tom Tiffany
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$4.3K15%for Tom Tiffany
CLUB FOR GROWTH PACR$1.3K5%for Tom Tiffany
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$703.732%for Tom Tiffany

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
CNalysis
Safe R
Aug 17
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Sep 5
Decision Desk HQ
Safe R
Oct 21
Elections Daily
Safe R
Aug 25
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 19
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jul 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-10
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks