Races · house · 2024 · Wisconsin

house · open seat

Wisconsin house

← Wisconsin house Wisconsin house →

Safe DD +66.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Moore (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Gwen Moore99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +66.0
80% CID+54.0 → D+78.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +66.0 · 80% CI D+54.0 → D+78.0
Actual result D+52.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+26) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+66.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+54.0 (10th pctile) to D+78.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +66.0

80% CI: D +54.0 → D +78.0 · win prob 99%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+52.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

DGwen Moore0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-09-30

Gwen MooreH4WI04183 ↗

Receipts

$1.4M

Disburse

$1.4M

Cash on hand

$22.2K

Debts

Top industries

Education$7.0K

Securities & investment$6.6K

Health professionals$4.6K

Top contributors

INVARIANT$10.5K

CD SMITH$7.0K

CAROLYN ROWAN COLLECTION$6.6K

LEM SETTLEMENT GROUP$6.6K

EPIC SYSTEMS CORPORATION$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$191.38

D side

$191.38 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

GRASSROOTS NORTH SHORE

For / against split

For Moore $191.38

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
GRASSROOTS NORTH SHORE	D	$94.03	49%	for Gwen Moore
350 WISCONSIN ACTION	D	$87.35	46%	for Gwen Moore
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	5%	for Gwen Moore

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

CNalysis

Safe D

Aug 17

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Sep 5

Decision Desk HQ

Safe D

Oct 21

Elections Daily

Safe D

Aug 25

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 19

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jul 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-09-30

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks