Races · house · 2024 · Wisconsin

house · open seat

Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden

← Wisconsin house Wisconsin house →

Safe RR +16.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Cooke (D)
99% Orden (R)
Win probability
Rebecca Cooke1% (D)
Derrick Van Orden99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +16.7
80% CIR+28.7 → R+4.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +16.7 · 80% CI R+28.7 → R+4.7
Actual result R+2.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.7 (10th pctile) to R+4.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +16.7

80% CI: R +28.7 → R +4.7 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+2.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RDerrick Van Orden0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DRebecca Cooke0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-05

Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175 ↗

Receipts

$7.7M

Disburse

$7.3M

Cash on hand

$516.8K

Debts

$92.2K

Top industries

Health professionals$14.7K

Real estate$8.0K

Top contributors

MARQUIS MANAGEMENT INC.$39.6K

EDW. C. LEVY CO.$21.6K

ORAL SURGERY CLINIC OF LACROSSE$14.7K

FISHER INVESTMENTS INC.$13.2K

BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$13.2K

Rebecca CookeH4WI03169 ↗

Receipts

$6.4M

Disburse

$6.3M

Cash on hand

$10.1K

Debts

Top industries

Education$38.2K

Internet$17.9K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN$24.1K

GOOGLE LLC$17.9K

HARVARD UNIVERSITY$14.1K

UW HEALTH$13.7K

Q PRIME$13.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$23.0M

D side

$19.4M · 84%

R side

$3.6M · 16%

Top spender

HMP

For / against split

For Cooke $2.0M

Against Orden $17.4M

Against Cooke $3.1M

For Orden $458.4K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HMP	D	$11.3M	49%	against Derrick Van Orden
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$2.5M	11%	against Rebecca Cooke
DEMOCRACYFIRST PAC	D	$2.2M	9%	against Derrick Van Orden
VOTEVETS	D	$2.0M	9%	against Derrick Van Orden
WELCOMEPAC	D	$1.4M	6%	for Rebecca Cooke
YOUR COMMUNITY PAC	D	$1.3M	5%	against Derrick Van Orden
STRATEGIC MAJORITY PAC	R	$592.0K	3%	against Rebecca Cooke
DEFEND THE VOTE	D	$410.0K	2%	against Derrick Van Orden
EDF ACTION VOTES	D	$258.6K	1%	for Rebecca Cooke

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tilt R2

Lean R4

CNalysis

Tilt R

Nov 3

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Sep 5

Decision Desk HQ

Lean R

Oct 21

Elections Daily

Lean R

Aug 25

Inside Elections

Tilt R

Oct 30

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Sep 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-05

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks