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Races · house · 2024 · Wisconsin
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Peter Barca vs Bryan Steil

← Washington houseWisconsin house →
Safe RR +16.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Barca (D)
99% Steil (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +16.7 · 80% CI R+28.7 → R+4.7
Actual result R+10.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+28.7 (10th pctile) to R+4.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.7
80% CI: R +28.7 → R +4.7 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+10.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBryan Steil0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPeter Barca0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-15
Peter BarcaH4WI01056 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$16.9K
Debts
$29.9K
Top industries
Real estate$13.2K
Govt employees$10.9K
Securities & investment$6.6K
Top contributors
COMPASS PROPERTIES$13.2K
CORNERSTONE SOLUTIONS$13.2K
STATE OF WISCONSIN$10.9K
M BETTER CONSTRUCTION$10.5K
FOLEY&LARDNER$6.6K
Bryan SteilOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$5.6M
Disburse
$4.9M
Cash on hand
$2.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$92.9K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$57.5K
KLONDIKE CHEESE$26.4K
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL$24.6K
KKR & CO$19.5K
BLACKROCK$15.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$19.7K
D side
$18.7K · 95%
R side
$996.42 · 5%
Top spender
THE WISCO PROJECT PAC
For / against split
For Barca $18.7K
Against Barca $996.42
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
THE WISCO PROJECT PACD$17.6K90%for Peter Barca
REPUBLICAN PARTY OF WISCONSINR$996.425%against Peter Barca
FOR OUR FUTURED$752.654%for Peter Barca
DEMOCRATIC MESSAGING PROJECTD$2811%for Peter Barca
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Peter Barca

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R5
Safe R1
CNalysis
Likely R
Aug 17
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Sep 5
Decision Desk HQ
Likely R
Oct 21
Elections Daily
Safe R
Aug 25
Inside Elections
Likely R
Jun 19
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Jul 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-15
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks