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Races · house · 2024 · Washington
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Kim Schrier vs Carmen Goers

← Washington houseWashington house →
Likely DD +8.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
93% Schrier (D)
7% Goers (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +8.9 · 80% CI R+3.1 → D+20.9
Actual result D+8.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 93% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.1 (10th pctile) to D+20.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.9
80% CI: R +3.1 → D +20.9 · win prob 93%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+8.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DKim Schrier0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RCarmen Goers0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-01
Carmen GoersH4WA08139 ↗
Receipts
$258.7K
Disburse
$258.5K
Cash on hand
$249.23
Debts
$99.6K
Top industries
Real estate$3.3K
Top contributors
WASHINGTON STATE SENATE$4.2K
GOODMAN REAL ESTATE$3.3K
MCSHANE LLC$3.2K
STAFFORD HEALTH SERVICES$2.5K
CHRISTIAN FAITH CENTER$2.4K
Kim SchrierH8WA08189 ↗
Receipts
$6.5M
Disburse
$5.1M
Cash on hand
$1.8M
Debts
$-283.68
Top industries
Education$71.0K
Computers / electronics$61.2K
Lawyers / law firms$11.1K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON$71.0K
MICROSOFT$26.0K
MICROSOFT CORPORATION$24.6K
KAISER PERMANENTE$20.4K
D4 LLC$13.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.0M
D side
$1.0M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Schrier $250.7K
Against Goers $750.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$500.0K50%against Carmen Goers
PRO-CHOICE MAJORITY 2024D$250.0K25%against Carmen Goers
SHIELD PACD$175.0K17%for Kim Schrier
WORKING AMERICAD$36.0K4%for Kim Schrier
MOMSRISING TOGETHERD$32.2K3%for Kim Schrier
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYD$4.4K0%for Kim Schrier
TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS 2024D$1.6K0%for Kim Schrier

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D4
Lean D1
CNalysis
Likely D
Jun 14
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Feb 1
Elections Daily
Likely D
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe D
Aug 28
RealClearPolitics
Lean D
Oct 31
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 4

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks