Races · house · 2024 · WA
house · open seat

Birdie Jane Muchlinski vs Dan Newhouse

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Likely R — · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-20
Total IE spending
$6.8M
For candidates
$2.4M
Against candidates
$4.3M
Latest filing: 11/20/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Jerrod Sessler (R)
$42K for · $3.9M against
Cash on hand
$75K
Total raised (cycle)
$792K
Total spent
$719K
Debts
$424K
Source: FEC
Dan Newhouse (R)
$2.0M for · $386K against
Cash on hand
$105K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.5M
Total spent
$2.4M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Tiffany Smiley (R)
$448K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$22K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.1M
Total spent
$1.0M
Debts
$5K
Source: FEC
Birdie Jane Muchlinski (D)
$889 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$13K
Total spent
$13K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Mary Baechler (D)
$889 for · $0 against

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi