Races · house · 2024 · Washington

house · open seat

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs Joe Kent

← Washington house Washington house →

Lean DD +2.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
66% Perez (D)
34% Kent (R)
Win probability
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez66% (D)
Joe Kent34% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +2.5
80% CIR+9.5 → D+14.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +2.5 · 80% CI R+9.5 → D+14.5
Actual result D+6.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 66% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.5 (10th pctile) to D+14.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 66% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +2.5

80% CI: R +9.5 → D +14.5 · win prob 66%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+6.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DMarie Gluesenkamp Perez0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJoe Kent0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IJohn Saulie0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-13

Joe KentH2WA03100 ↗

Receipts

$2.7M

Disburse

$2.7M

Cash on hand

$-1,031.99

Debts

$100.0K

Top industries

Crop production$8.2K

Real estate$7.7K

Top contributors

OWNER$16.1K

PRESIDENT$15.6K

CEO$11.1K

VETERINARIAN$10.1K

EXECUTIVE$9.7K

Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217 ↗

Receipts

$11.9M

Disburse

$11.9M

Cash on hand

$26.5K

Debts

$39.4K

Top industries

Computers / electronics$83.1K

Education$42.9K

Lawyers / law firms$15.6K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON$42.9K

MICROSOFT CORP$27.9K

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN FRANCISCO$22.5K

BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS$21.4K

INSIGHT PARTNERS$19.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$55.0M

D side

$36.4M · 66%

R side

$18.6M · 34%

Top spender

HMP

For / against split

For Perez $7.2M

Against Kent $29.2M

Against Perez $16.9M

For Kent $1.7M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HMP	D	$26.0M	47%	against Joe Kent
NRCC	R	$16.5M	30%	against Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
PROJECT 218	D	$5.3M	10%	for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
WELCOMEPAC	D	$1.4M	3%	for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
AMERICA PAC	R	$1.3M	2%	for Joe Kent
BOLD AMERICA	D	$1.2M	2%	against Joe Kent
TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS 2024	D	$724.5K	1%	against Joe Kent
DCCC	D	$540.0K	1%	against Joe Kent
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	D	$253.5K	0%	for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D1

Tilt D1

Tossup2

Lean R2

CNalysis

Tilt D

Nov 2

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Feb 1

DDHQ / The Hill

Lean R

Aug 25

Elections Daily

Lean D

Nov 3

Inside Elections

Tossup

Sep 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-13

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks