NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · Virginia
</> Embed
house · open seat

Karen Baker vs Morgan Griffith

← Virginia houseVirginia house →
Safe RR +52.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Baker (D)
99% Griffith (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +52.2 · 80% CI R+64.2 → R+40.2
Actual result R+45.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+22) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+52.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+64.2 (10th pctile) to R+40.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +52.2
80% CI: R +64.2 → R +40.2 · win prob 1%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+45.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMorgan Griffith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKaren Baker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-13
Karen BakerH4VA09057 ↗
Receipts
$224.2K
Disburse
$230.7K
Cash on hand
$-6,532.29
Debts
$0
Top industries
Insurance$1.0K
Top contributors
WATTERSON SOLUTIONS$3.3K
WELL PETS$3.3K
NCDAC$3.3K
JPI$3.3K
KE SEIFERT INC$3.3K
Morgan GriffithH0VA09055 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$463.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
THE UROLOGY GROUP$8.5K
PCCA$6.7K
BOSE PUBLIC AFFAIRS GROUP$6.6K
RYAN PHILLIPS UTRECHT MACKINNO$6.6K
COMMONWEALTH CARE$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.5K
D side
$2.1K · 81%
R side
$473 · 19%
Top spender
RURAL GROUNDGAME 3X
For / against split
For Baker $2.1K
For Griffith $473
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
RURAL GROUNDGAME 3XD$2.1K81%for Karen Baker
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$47319%for Morgan Griffith

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 20
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 12

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-13
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks