Races · house · 2024 · Virginia
house · open seat
Andrea Bailey vs Derrick Anderson
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 89% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.6 (10th pctile) to D+19.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 89% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.4
80% CI: R +4.6 → D +19.4 · win prob 89%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+2.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDAndrea Bailey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDerrick Anderson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12Derrick AndersonH2VA07170 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$56.3K
Debts
$36.5K
Top industries
Education$11.1K
Education · $11.1K
- Investments Limited · $11.1K
Individuals $11.1K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$6.6K
Securities & investment · $6.6K
- Blackstone · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
STEPHENS INC.$13.2K
VALMORE GP$13.2K
ULINE$13.2K
INVESTMENTS LIMITED$11.1K
BLUE RIDGE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE HOLD$8.2K
Andrea Bailey
Receipts
$372.9K
Disburse
$372.9K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$3.4K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$6.6K
Lawyers / law firms · $6.6K
- Kirkland & Ellis · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Real estate$6.6K
Real estate · $6.6K
- Plaza Realty Mgt INC · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Crop production$3.3K
Crop production · $3.3K
- Madera Farm · $3.3K
Individuals $3.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ANDRINA$6.6K
KIRKLAND & ELLIS$6.6K
PLAZA REALTY MGT INC$6.6K
CASTLEROCK PARTNERS$3.3K
CLOUDHQ$3.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$14.4M
D side
$12.4M · 86%
R side
$2.0M · 14%
Top spender
HMP
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMP super pac · boosts D
| D | $12.4M | 86% | against Derrick Anderson |
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.4M | 10% | for Derrick Anderson |
| PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $307.0K | 2% | for Derrick Anderson |
| GOA VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $124.4K | 1% | for Derrick Anderson |
| ELECT PRINCIPLED VETERANS FUND (EPV FUND) super pac · boosts R
| R | $109.0K | 1% | for Derrick Anderson |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Decision Desk HQ · Oct 6
Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- CNalysis · Oct 6
- Elections Daily · Jun 7
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 12
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Oct 30
Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 7
CNalysis
Lean DThe Cook Political Report
TossupDecision Desk HQ
Likely DElections Daily
Lean DInside Elections
Tilt DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks