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Races · house · 2024 · Virginia
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Gary Terry vs Bob Good

← Virginia houseVirginia house →
Safe RR +34.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Terry (D)
99% Good (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +34.0 · 80% CI R+46.0 → R+22.0
Actual result R+15.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.0 (10th pctile) to R+22.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +34.0
80% CI: R +46.0 → R +22.0 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+15.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBob Good0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DGary Terry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-05
Bob GoodH0VA05160 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$4.4K
Debts
$62.1K
Top industries
Securities & investment$11.6K
Casinos / gambling$6.6K
Health professionals$6.6K
Crop production$5.0K
Top contributors
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$13.2K
MORGAN LUMBER COMPANY$11.6K
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES, INC.$6.6K
JBLC$6.6K
KINSALE MGMT INC$6.6K
Gary TerryOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$13.5K
Disburse
$9.0K
Cash on hand
$3.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$11.8M
D side
$6.8M · 58%
R side
$5.0M · 42%
Top spender
AMERICAN PATRIOTS PAC
For / against split
Against Good $6.8M
For Good $5.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICAN PATRIOTS PACD$5.7M48%against Bob Good
CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDER PAC INCR$3.1M26%for Bob Good
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP')D$1.1M9%against Bob Good
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTIONR$964.3K8%for Bob Good
COURAGEOUS CONSERVATIVES PACR$655.3K6%for Bob Good

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 20
Decision Desk HQ
Safe R
Oct 21
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 12

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks