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Races · house · 2024 · Virginia
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house · open seat

Jennifer McClellan vs William Moher

← Virginia houseVirginia house →
Safe DD +40.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% McClellan (D)
1% Moher (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +40.3 · 80% CI D+28.3 → D+52.3
Actual result D+34.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+40.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+28.3 (10th pctile) to D+52.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +40.3
80% CI: D +28.3 → D +52.3 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+34.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJennifer McClellan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RWilliam Moher0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-24
Jennifer McClellanH4VA04066 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$2.7M
Cash on hand
$54.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$16.6K
Education$7.4K
Top contributors
VERIZON$19.5K
DOMINION ENERGY$13.5K
WELBURN MANAGEMENT$12.9K
WEISSBERG CORP.$10.8K
PREMIER HEALTH SERVICES, INC.$9.9K
William MoherOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$413.8K
Disburse
$413.8K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$120.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$500
Top contributors
3B CAPITAL PARTNERS$1.0K
LAW OFFICE OF JOHN M. BARR, P.C.$500
SAIC RESTON VA$500
CHT$300
HAMILTON POLYMERS$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$77.7K
D side
$77.7K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
LCV VICTORY FUND
For / against split
For McClellan $77.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$46.4K60%for Jennifer McClellan
32BJ UNITED AMERICAN DREAM FUNDD$17.4K22%for Jennifer McClellan
DMFI PACD$6.0K8%for Jennifer McClellan
CARE IN ACTION PACD$4.4K6%for Jennifer McClellan
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$2.5K3%for Jennifer McClellan

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Mar 20
Decision Desk HQ
Safe D
Oct 21
Elections Daily
Safe D
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jul 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 12

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-24
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks