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Races · house · 2024 · Virginia
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Jake Denton vs Jen Kiggans

← Virginia houseVirginia house →
Safe RR +19.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Denton (D)
99% Kiggans (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +19.6 · 80% CI R+31.6 → R+7.7
Actual result R+3.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.6 (10th pctile) to R+7.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.6
80% CI: R +31.6 → R +7.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJen Kiggans0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJake Denton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-17
Jen KiggansH2VA02064 ↗
Receipts
$6.5M
Disburse
$6.5M
Cash on hand
$45.5K
Debts
$202.7K
Top industries
Education$15.0K
Securities & investment$12.6K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$29.4K
HEPBURN & SONS LLC$23.1K
ENTREPRENEUR$19.5K
INVESTMENTS LIMITED$15.0K
C & M INDUSTRIES$14.1K
Jake DentonH4VA02078 ↗
Receipts
$389.0K
Disburse
$389.0K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$3.5K
Top contributors
KAUFMAN & CANOLES$7.5K
THE KAIROS GROUP$4.3K
STANDING PROPERTIES LLC$3.5K
MEEKS DISPOSAL$3.5K
PASHM GLOBAL$3.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$14.1M
D side
$12.2M · 86%
R side
$1.9M · 14%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Denton $45.8K
Against Kiggans $12.2M
For Kiggans $1.9M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$9.4M66%against Jen Kiggans
VOTEVETSD$2.7M19%against Jen Kiggans
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$1.3M9%for Jen Kiggans
CENTER FORWARD INITIATIVE INCR$297.7K2%for Jen Kiggans
SAVE WESTERN CULTURED$117.9K1%against Jen Kiggans
BLUE HORIZON ACTIOND$45.8K0%for Jake Denton

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt R1
Lean R5
CNalysis
Lean R
Oct 20
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Mar 20
Decision Desk HQ
Lean R
Oct 21
Elections Daily
Lean R
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Jul 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 12

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Tossupmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks