Races · house · 2024 · Utah

house · open seat

Nathaniel Woodward vs Colby Jenkins

← Utah house Utah house →

Safe RR +31.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Woodward (D)
99% Jenkins (R)
Win probability
Nathaniel Woodward1% (D)
Colby Jenkins99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +31.4
80% CIR+43.4 → R+19.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +31.4 · 80% CI R+43.4 → R+19.4
Actual result R+23.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.4 (10th pctile) to R+19.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +31.4

80% CI: R +43.4 → R +19.4 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+23.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RColby Jenkins0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DNathaniel Woodward0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-09-18

Colby JenkinsH4UT02387 ↗

Receipts

$507.9K

Disburse

$507.9K

Cash on hand

$1.58

Debts

Top industries

Education$7.3K

Top contributors

SIERRA NEVADA CORPORATION$11.9K

PJMB COMMERCIAL INC.$9.9K

SILVER SUMMIT CAPITAL LLC$7.3K

L. & L. MOTOR COMPANY INC.$6.6K

MAP MANAGEMENT LLC$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.1M

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$1.1M · 100%

Top spender

CONSTITUTIONAL CONS…

For / against split

For Jenkins $1.1M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONSTITUTIONAL CONSERVATIVES FUND	R	$894.7K	78%	for Colby Jenkins
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION	R	$153.6K	13%	for Colby Jenkins
PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$59.8K	5%	for Colby Jenkins
GREEN BERET POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$40.0K	3%	for Colby Jenkins
HOUSE FREEDOM FUND	R	$1.1K	0%	for Colby Jenkins

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

CNalysis

Safe R

Dec 27

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Dec 29

Elections Daily

Safe R

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jan 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-09-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks