Races · house · 2024 · Texas

house · open seat

Laura Jones vs Morgan Luttrell

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe RR +42.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Jones (D)
99% Luttrell (R)
Win probability
Laura Jones1% (D)
Morgan Luttrell99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +42.5
80% CIR+54.5 → R+30.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +42.5 · 80% CI R+54.5 → R+30.5
Actual result R+36.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+42.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+54.5 (10th pctile) to R+30.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +42.5

80% CI: R +54.5 → R +30.5 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+36.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RMorgan Luttrell0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DLaura Jones0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-22

Morgan LuttrellH2TX08182 ↗

Receipts

$1.9M

Disburse

$1.4M

Cash on hand

$700.6K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$40.4K

STEELY LUMBER$11.6K

ALLIANT$7.6K

ALTA RESOURCES$6.6K

VEGA ENERGY$6.6K

Laura JonesOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$49.5K

Disburse

$47.4K

Cash on hand

$2.5K

Debts

$2.3K

Top industries

Computers / electronics$225

Crop production$95

Top contributors

JACK WHITE ENTERPRISES, INC$1.0K

REXEL USA$700

BAKER HUGHES$565

BEHOLD$250

HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISES$225

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$14.6K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$14.6K · 100%

Top spender

WITH HONOR FUND II,…

For / against split

For Luttrell $14.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WITH HONOR FUND II, INC.	R	$11.6K	79%	for Morgan Luttrell
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$2.5K	17%	for Morgan Luttrell
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	R	$292.38	2%	for Morgan Luttrell
TEXAS PATRIOTS PAC	R	$173.2	1%	for Morgan Luttrell
FAMILY FIRST COALITION PAC	R	$58.44	0%	for Morgan Luttrell

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Feb 1

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

Jun 13

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-22

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks