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Races · house · 2024 · Texas
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Vincente Gonzalez vs Laura Cisneros

← Texas houseTexas house →
Lean DD +2.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
63% Gonzalez (D)
37% Cisneros (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +2.0 · 80% CI R+10.0 → D+14.0
Actual result D+2.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 63% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.0 (10th pctile) to D+14.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 63% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.0
80% CI: R +10.0 → D +14.0 · win prob 63%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+2.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DVincente Gonzalez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLaura Cisneros0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-06
Vincente GonzalezH6TX15162 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Laura CisnerosOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$29.7K
Disburse
$73.0K
Cash on hand
$172.2
Debts
$224.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$14.9M
D side
$9.7M · 65%
R side
$5.2M · 35%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
For / against split
For Gonzalez $4.7M
Against Flores $5.1M
Against Gonzalez $5.0M
For Flores $169.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUNDD$3.9M26%for Vincente Gonzalez
NRCCR$3.5M24%against Vincente Gonzalez
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.5M10%against Vincente Gonzalez
DCCCD$420.8K3%for Vincente Gonzalez
NATIONAL APARTMENT ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$187.4K1%for Vincente Gonzalez

Editorial ratings · 2 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
Lean D1
CNalysis
Likely D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jul 19

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-06
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks