NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · Texas
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Henry Cuellar vs Jay Furman

← Texas houseTexas house →
Lean DD +4.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
78% Cuellar (D)
22% Furman (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +4.7 · 80% CI R+7.3 → D+16.7
Actual result D+5.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 78% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.3 (10th pctile) to D+16.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 78% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +4.7
80% CI: R +7.3 → D +16.7 · win prob 78%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+5.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DHenry Cuellar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJay Furman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-31
Henry CuellarH2TX23082 ↗
Receipts
$2.5M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$48.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
SELECT DEDICATED SOLUTIONS$23.1K
THE GEO GROUP$19.2K
ATS COMMUNICATIONS INC$13.2K
UNI-TRADE FOWARDING$12.9K
SOUTHWEST BUSINESS CORPORATION$9.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$743.58
D side
$743.58 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
COMMUNITY CHANGE VO…
For / against split
For Cuellar $743.58
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
COMMUNITY CHANGE VOTERSD$743.58100%for Henry Cuellar

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D4
Lean D1
CNalysis
Likely D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Sep 5
Decision Desk HQ
Likely D
Jun 13
Elections Daily
Likely D
Sep 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
May 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks