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Races · house · 2024 · Texas
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Ernest Lineberger vs Scott Armey

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe RR +37.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Lineberger (D)
99% Armey (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +37.2 · 80% CI R+49.2 → R+25.2
Actual result R+26.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.2 (10th pctile) to R+25.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +37.2
80% CI: R +49.2 → R +25.2 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+26.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RScott Armey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DErnest Lineberger0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-13
Scott ArmeyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$369.2K
Disburse
$369.2K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$3.3K
Top contributors
FIELDS WEALTH MANAGEMENT$13.2K
DESERT SHORE CAPITAL PARTNERS$6.6K
MATTHEWS HOLDINGS$6.6K
AIRBORNE ASPECT$5.0K
VICTUALIC$5.0K
Ernest LinebergerOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$110.1K
Disburse
$106.7K
Cash on hand
$3.5K
Debts
$31.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
BELL TEXTRON, INC.$1.2K
MATTHEW SW/ MATTHEW HOLDINGS$1.0K
AVIOR WEALTH MANAGEMENT$1.0K
OPENTEXT INC.$1.0K
BAYLOR SURGICARE$675

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$4.8M
D side
$3.5M · 71%
R side
$1.4M · 29%
Top spender
—
For / against split
Against Gill $3.5M
For Gill $1.4M

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 1
Decision Desk HQ
Safe R
Jun 13
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-13
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks