Races · house · 2024 · Texas

house · open seat

Santos Limon vs Victor Avila

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe RR +26.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Limon (D)
99% Avila (R)
Win probability
Santos Limon1% (D)
Victor Avila99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +26.0
80% CIR+38.0 → R+14.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +26.0 · 80% CI R+38.0 → R+14.0
Actual result R+24.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+26.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.0 (10th pctile) to R+14.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +26.0

80% CI: R +38.0 → R +14.0 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+24.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RVictor Avila0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DSantos Limon0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-23

Santos LimonOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$127.2K

Disburse

$111.7K

Cash on hand

$15.8K

Debts

$169.0K

Top industries

Education$1.1K

Govt employees$300

Top contributors

GI VETERANS FORUM$2.6K

PECOS COUNTY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRI$871.83

UNIVERISTY OF TEXAS$500

TEXAS ONCOLOGY$500

CITY OF ROCKSPRINGS$300

Victor AvilaOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$114.3K

Disburse

$114.3K

Cash on hand

Debts

$9.8K

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$6.1K

Education$2.0K

Securities & investment$1.0K

Top contributors

ROLANDO VAZQUEZ LAW$6.1K

JACK LAURENCE CORPORATION$3.3K

DESERT ROYALTY COMPANY$3.3K

PALO ALTO COLLEGE$2.0K

MAYHEM SOULTUIONS GROUP, LLC$2.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$7.8M

D side

$7.8M · 100%

R side

$34.7K · 0%

Top spender

—

For / against split

Against Herrera $7.8M

For Herrera $34.7K

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Feb 1

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

Jun 13

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-23

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks