Races · house · 2024 · Texas
house · open seat
Marquette Greene-Scott vs Troy Nehls
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+30.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+42.6 (10th pctile) to R+18.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +30.6
80% CI: R +42.6 → R +18.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+24.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRTroy Nehls0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMarquette Greene-Scott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-22Troy NehlsH0TX22302 ↗
Receipts
$896.3K
Disburse
$999.4K
Cash on hand
$289.1K
Debts
$126.73
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$3.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $3.3K
- Allen Boone Humphries Robinson LLP · $3.3K
Individuals $3.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
HERZOG CONTRACTING CORP.$19.8K
KBR BUILDERS$10.0K
HERZOG$9.9K
CLEAR PAVE$9.8K
PLANO 6500 LLC$6.6K
Marquette Greene-Scott
Receipts
$68.7K
Disburse
$66.8K
Cash on hand
$233.32
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$1.0K
Securities & investment · $1.0K
- Marie Morgan-gowdy · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Education$500
Education · $500
- Gwinnett County Public Schools · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Insurance$500
Insurance · $500
- Humana · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Govt employees$500
Govt employees · $500
- State of Texas · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Top contributors
FORT BEND COUNTY$3.0K
ADICO$2.0K
HFD$1.0K
MARIE MORGAN-GOWDY$1.0K
GWINNETT COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$105.6K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$105.6K · 100%
Top spender
CONSTITUTIONAL LEAD…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $102.0K | 97% | for Troy Nehls |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $2.4K | 2% | for Troy Nehls |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $867.5 | 1% | for Troy Nehls |
| TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $292.38 | 0% | for Troy Nehls |
| FAMILY FIRST COALITION PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $58.44 | 0% | for Troy Nehls |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 1
- Decision Desk HQ · Jun 13
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 22
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-22
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks