Races · house · 2024 · Texas

house · open seat

Texas house

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe RR +37.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% (D)
99% Crenshaw (R)
Win probability
Democrat1% (D)
Dan Crenshaw99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +37.0
80% CIR+49.0 → R+25.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +37.0 · 80% CI R+49.0 → R+25.0
Actual result R+31.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.0 (10th pctile) to R+25.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +37.0

80% CI: R +49.0 → R +25.0 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+31.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RDan Crenshaw0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-22

Dan CrenshawH8TX02166 ↗

Receipts

$4.1M

Disburse

$4.8M

Cash on hand

$469.3K

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$34.0K

Real estate$13.3K

Top contributors

CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST$19.8K

MCCORD DEVELOPMENT$16.5K

RIDA DEVELOPMENT$15.7K

ADVANCED HEALTH CARE$14.2K

CUSMANO REAL ESTATE$13.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.5K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$2.5K · 100%

Top spender

NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…

For / against split

For Crenshaw $2.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$2.1K	86%	for Dan Crenshaw
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	R	$292.38	12%	for Dan Crenshaw
FAMILY FIRST COALITION PAC	R	$58.44	2%	for Dan Crenshaw

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Feb 1

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

Jun 13

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-22

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks