Races · house · 2024 · Texas

house · open seat

Texas house

← Texas house Texas house →

Safe RR +58.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% (D)
99% Arrington (R)
Win probability
Democrat1% (D)
Jodey Arrington99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +58.0
80% CIR+70.0 → R+46.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +58.0 · 80% CI R+70.0 → R+46.0
Actual result R+70.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+25) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+58.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+70.0 (10th pctile) to R+46.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +58.0

80% CI: R +70.0 → R +46.0 · win prob 1%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+70.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RJodey Arrington0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-23

Jodey ArringtonH6TX19099 ↗

Receipts

$3.3M

Disburse

$2.7M

Cash on hand

$1.9M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

CHARTER BROKERAGE LLC$28.8K

SIMFLO$19.8K

GRAIL$18.2K

CITY BANK$13.2K

NORTHSTAR ANESTHESIA$13.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$31.3K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$31.3K · 100%

Top spender

NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…

For / against split

For Arrington $31.3K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$28.6K	91%	for Jodey Arrington
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$2.4K	8%	for Jodey Arrington
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC	R	$292.38	1%	for Jodey Arrington

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Feb 1

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

Jun 13

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-23

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks