Races · house · 2024 · Tennessee
house · open seat
Megan Barry vs Mark Green
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+30.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+42.2 (10th pctile) to R+18.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +30.2
80% CI: R +42.2 → R +18.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+21.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRMark Green0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMegan Barry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-19Megan BarryH4TN07133 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$29.0K
Education · $29.0K
- Vanderbilt University · $29.0K
Individuals $29.0K · PACs $0
Health professionals$24.8K
Health professionals · $24.8K
- Vanderbilt University Medical Center · $18.2K
- Greater Ny Hospital Association · $6.6K
Individuals $24.8K · PACs $0
Govt employees$7.8K
Govt employees · $7.8K
- State of Tennessee · $7.8K
Individuals $7.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY$29.0K
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER$18.2K
LHP CAPITAL, LLC$9.9K
STATE OF TENNESSEE$7.8K
METRO GOVERNMENT OF NASHVILLE$7.1K
Mark GreenH8TN07076 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$66.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$13.2K
Education · $13.2K
- Investments Limited · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ROGERS GROUP$21.6K
ADVANCE FINANCIAL$13.2K
INVESTMENTS LIMITED$13.2K
AYERS FOUNDATION$13.2K
TRT HOLDINGS INC.$13.2K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$8.6K
D side
$7.8K · 90%
R side
$821.31 · 10%
Top spender
TENNESSEE IMMIGRANT…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENNESSEE IMMIGRANT AND REFUGEE RIGHTS COALITION VOTES ACTION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $7.8K | 90% | for Megan Barry |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $821.31 | 10% | for Mark Green |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 1
- Elections Daily · Sep 6
- Inside Elections · Mar 9
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 22
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks