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Races · house · 2024 · South Carolina
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Mac Deford vs Nancy Mace

← Rhode Island houseSouth Carolina house →
Safe RR +25.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Deford (D)
99% Mace (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +25.3 · 80% CI R+37.3 → R+13.3
Actual result R+16.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.2 (10th pctile) to R+13.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.3
80% CI: R +37.3 → R +13.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+16.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RNancy Mace0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMac Deford0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-22
Nancy MaceH0SC01394 ↗
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$3.0M
Cash on hand
$664.6K
Debts
$100
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
VETERANS GUARDIAN VA CLAIM CONSULTING$14.7K
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$13.2K
APPLIED MATERIALS$7.1K
MEETING ST CAPITAL$6.6K
SILVER EAGLE DISTRIBUTORS$6.6K
Mac DefordH4SC01305 ↗
Receipts
$472.6K
Disburse
$472.6K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$6.6K
Top contributors
DOORDASH INC.$6.6K
MUSC$3.8K
CHARLESTON DEVELOPMENT COMPANY$3.3K
BLACKBAUD$3.3K
AG-PRO$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$3.5M
D side
$1.7M · 49%
R side
$1.8M · 51%
Top spender
PALMETTO VALUES
For / against split
For Deford $105.8K
Against Mace $1.6M
For Mace $1.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PALMETTO VALUESD$1.6M46%against Nancy Mace
WIN IT BACK PACR$1.3M37%for Nancy Mace
YOUR LOWCOUNTRY NEIGHBORSR$270.0K8%for Nancy Mace
ANIMAL WELLNESS ACTIONR$167.8K5%for Nancy Mace
UNITEDEMOCRATS PACD$105.8K3%for Mac Deford

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R4
CNalysis
Likely R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
May 23
Elections Daily
Safe R
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 19
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-22
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks