Races · house · 2024 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Susan Wild vs Kevin Dellicker

← Pennsylvania house Pennsylvania house →

Likely DD +5.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
82% Wild (D)
18% Dellicker (R)
Win probability
Susan Wild82% (D)
Kevin Dellicker18% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +5.4
80% CIR+6.6 → D+17.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +5.4 · 80% CI R+6.6 → D+17.4
Actual result R+1.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 82% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.6 (10th pctile) to D+17.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 82% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +5.4

80% CI: R +6.6 → D +17.4 · win prob 82%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+1.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DSusan Wild0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RKevin Dellicker0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-30

Susan WildH8PA15229 ↗

Receipts

$9.0M

Disburse

$8.9M

Cash on hand

$68.7K

Debts

Top industries

Education$32.6K

Securities & investment$26.4K

Internet$23.9K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$23.9K

BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS$21.4K

INSIGHT PARTNERS$19.8K

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$17.7K

LEHIGH UNIVERSITY$15.0K

Kevin DellickerH2PA07096 ↗

Receipts

$564.2K

Disburse

$564.0K

Cash on hand

$1.8K

Debts

$170.0K

Top industries

Computers / electronics$3.4K

Health professionals$2.4K

Top contributors

DELLICKER STRATEGIES, LLC$3.4K

CAMP FREEDOM INC.$3.3K

DUEL TEMP COMPANY$3.3K

LEHIGH VALLEY SPORTING CLAYS$3.0K

ALLENTOWN CITY$3.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.4M

D side

$2.0M · 85%

R side

$358.5K · 15%

Top spender

FOR OUR FUTURE

For / against split

For Wild $2.0M

Against Dellicker $5.6K

Against Wild $298.5K

For Dellicker $60.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
FOR OUR FUTURE	D	$845.1K	36%	for Susan Wild
PRO PAC	D	$377.5K	16%	for Susan Wild
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$298.4K	13%	against Susan Wild
HMP	D	$287.0K	12%	for Susan Wild
MAKE THE ROAD ACTION INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE	D	$152.1K	6%	for Susan Wild
SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	R	$60.0K	3%	for Kevin Dellicker
LV REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP FUND	D	$5.6K	0%	against Kevin Dellicker

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D2

Tilt D2

Tossup1

CNalysis

Tilt D

Aug 17

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Dec 11

Elections Daily

Lean D

Nov 3

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Dec 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Oct 23

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-30

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks