Races · house · 2024 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Pennsylvania house

← Pennsylvania house Pennsylvania house →

Safe DD +36.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Scanlon (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Mary Gay Scanlon99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +36.5
80% CID+24.5 → D+48.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +36.5 · 80% CI D+24.5 → D+48.5
Actual result D+30.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+15) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+36.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+24.5 (10th pctile) to D+48.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +36.5

80% CI: D +24.5 → D +48.5 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+30.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

DMary Gay Scanlon0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-19

Mary Gay ScanlonH8PA07200 ↗

Receipts

$1.5M

Disburse

$1.5M

Cash on hand

$317.7K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$41.4K

Education$16.3K

Securities & investment$12.5K

Top contributors

BALLARD SPAHR LLP$35.4K

BALLARD SPAHR$32.8K

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$10.4K

VAMS CORPORATION$6.6K

AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORPORATION$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.6K

D side

$2.4K · 92%

R side

$210.18 · 8%

Top spender

THE TURNOUT PROJECT

For / against split

For Scanlon $2.4K

Against Scanlon $210.18

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
THE TURNOUT PROJECT	D	$1.1K	42%	for Mary Gay Scanlon
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	D	$479.44	18%	for Mary Gay Scanlon
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$414.94	16%	for Mary Gay Scanlon
FOR OUR FUTURE	D	$240	9%	for Mary Gay Scanlon
PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC	R	$210.18	8%	against Mary Gay Scanlon

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Dec 11

Elections Daily

Safe D

Feb 4

Inside Elections

Safe D

Dec 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-19

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks