Races · house · 2024 · Pennsylvania
house · open seat
Chris Deluzio vs Rob Mercuri
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 92% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.5 (10th pctile) to D+20.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.6
80% CI: R +3.5 → D +20.6 · win prob 92%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+7.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDChris Deluzio0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRob Mercuri0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-30Rob MercuriH4PA17166 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$28.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris DeluzioH2PA17103 ↗
Receipts
$5.1M
Disburse
$4.7M
Cash on hand
$353.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$21.5K
Education · $21.5K
- University of Pittsburgh · $11.6K
- Carnegie Mellon University · $9.9K
Individuals $21.5K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$12.9K
Lawyers / law firms · $12.9K
- Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP · $12.9K
Individuals $12.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CHARLES & LYNN SCHUSTERMAN FAMILY PHIL$19.8K
BERKSHIRE PARTNERS$15.3K
TITAN ROBOTICS INC$14.0K
CLEARY GOTTLIEB STEEN & HAMILTON LLP$12.9K
UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH$11.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.8M
D side
$1.1M · 62%
R side
$692.8K · 38%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $603.8K | 33% | for Rob Mercuri |
| HMP super pac · boosts D
| D | $480.0K | 26% | against Rob Mercuri |
| VOTEVETS super pac · boosts D
| D | $466.1K | 26% | against Rob Mercuri |
| FOOD AND WATER ACTION pac · boosts D
| D | $123.7K | 7% | for Chris Deluzio |
| SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $87.2K | 5% | for Rob Mercuri |
| GET OUT THE VOTE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $47.9K | 3% | for Chris Deluzio |
| API PA VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $5.9K | 0% | for Chris Deluzio |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.5K | 0% | for Rob Mercuri |
| FUTURE PENNSYLVANIA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $878.25 | 0% | for Chris Deluzio |
| FOR OUR FUTURE super pac · boosts D
| D | $400.5 | 0% | for Chris Deluzio |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D3
Likely D · 3 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- Elections Daily · Feb 4
- Inside Elections · Sep 11
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Dec 11
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 6
CNalysis
Likely DThe Cook Political Report
Lean DElections Daily
Likely DInside Elections
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-30
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks