Races · house · 2024 · PA
house · open seat
Summer Lee vs James Hayes
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely D
likely-d
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-19Total IE spending
$1.7M
For candidates
$1.7M
Against candidates
$420
Latest filing: 12/19/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Bhavini Patel (D)
$1.2M for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$41K
Total raised (cycle)
$701K
Total spent
$681K
Debts
$2K
Source: FEC
- $1.2M for THE MODERATE PAC, INC. Super PAC
Summer Lee (D)
$443K for ·
$420 against
Cash on hand
$1.0M
Total raised (cycle)
$3.0M
Total spent
$2.0M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $204K for SOLIDARITY VICTORY PAC Super PAC
- $120K for PA UNITED FEDERAL ACTION COMMITTEE Super PAC
- $69K for REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM FOR ALL FREEDOM FUND Super PAC
- $23K for WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC Super PAC
- $15K for API PA VOTES Super PAC
James Hayes (?)
$0 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$686
Total raised (cycle)
$136K
Total spent
$136K
Debts
$10K
Source: FEC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi