Races · house · 2024 · PA
house · open seat
David Baker vs Lloyd Smucker
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely R
likely-r
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-19Total IE spending
$6K
For candidates
$6K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 12/19/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Lloyd Smucker (R)
$6K for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$904K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.8M
Total spent
$1.8M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $6K for NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND PAC
- $210 for PENNSYLVANIA PRO-LIFE FEDERATION PAC PAC
James Atkinson (D)
$163 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$1K
Total raised (cycle)
$21K
Total spent
$19K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $163 for PEOPLE POWER PENNSYLVANIA Super PAC
David Baker (?)
$0 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$8K
Total spent
$8K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi