NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · Pennsylvania
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Mike O'Brien vs Scott Perry

← Pennsylvania housePennsylvania house →
Safe RR +17.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% O'Brien (D)
99% Perry (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +17.2 · 80% CI R+29.2 → R+5.2
Actual result R+1.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.2 (10th pctile) to R+5.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +17.2
80% CI: R +29.2 → R +5.2 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+1.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RScott Perry0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMike O'Brien0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-23
Scott PerryH2PA04135 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$4.6M
Cash on hand
$81.9K
Debts
$17.5K
Top industries
Health professionals$6.6K
Top contributors
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$13.2K
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$13.2K
COMMONWEALTH OF PA$8.3K
FOUR SEASONS PRODUCE$7.3K
INTERACTIVE BROKERS$6.6K
Mike O'BrienOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$794.9K
Disburse
$791.5K
Cash on hand
$3.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$18.2K
Govt employees$8.0K
Air transport$4.8K
Computers / electronics$4.3K
Top contributors
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY$6.6K
BERKSHIRE PARTNERS LLC$6.6K
HARVARD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF EDUCATION$6.6K
KELLMAN BROWN ACADEMY$5.0K
LOCKHEED MARTIN$4.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$30.4M
D side
$22.6M · 74%
R side
$7.8M · 26%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Stelson $768.2K
Against Perry $21.8M
Against Stelson $6.5M
For Perry $1.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$16.1M53%against Scott Perry
PRO-CHOICE MAJORITY 2024D$2.0M7%against Scott Perry
PEOPLE POWER PENNSYLVANIAD$1.5M5%against Scott Perry
NRDC ACTION VOTESD$990.0K3%against Scott Perry
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTIONR$676.2K2%for Scott Perry

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tilt D1
Tossup1
Tilt R1
Lean R1
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 17
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Sep 11
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks