Races · house · 2024 · Pennsylvania

house · open seat

Ashley Ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick

← Oregon house Pennsylvania house →

Safe RR +15.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Ehasz (D)
99% Fitzpatrick (R)
Win probability
Ashley Ehasz1% (D)
Brian Fitzpatrick99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +15.9
80% CIR+27.9 → R+3.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +15.9 · 80% CI R+27.9 → R+3.9
Actual result R+12.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.9 (10th pctile) to R+3.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +15.9

80% CI: R +27.9 → R +3.9 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+12.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RBrian Fitzpatrick0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DAshley Ehasz0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-30

Brian FitzpatrickH6PA08277 ↗

Receipts

$6.4M

Disburse

$3.5M

Cash on hand

$4.4M

Debts

$24.8K

Top industries

Securities & investment$43.3K

Top contributors

BLACKSTONE$26.8K

CHAIRMAN$22.0K

EXECUTIVE$20.4K

GREYLOCK PARTNERS$19.8K

PRESIDENT$17.5K

Ashley EhaszH2PA01099 ↗

Receipts

$4.0M

Disburse

$4.0M

Cash on hand

$4.7K

Debts

Top industries

Education$17.0K

Internet$13.5K

Top contributors

GOOGLE LLC$13.5K

LONE PINE CAPITAL$9.9K

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$9.8K

DELOITTE$8.1K

GENESIS AEC$7.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.5M

D side

$204.7K · 14%

R side

$1.3M · 86%

Top spender

AMERICA'S CREDIT UN…

For / against split

For Ehasz $104.5K

Against Fitzpatrick $100.2K

Against Ehasz $8.82

For Fitzpatrick $1.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
AMERICA'S CREDIT UNIONS PAC OF CREDIT UNION NATIONAL ASSOCIATION, INC.	R	$400.0K	27%	for Brian Fitzpatrick
CENTER FORWARD INITIATIVE INC	R	$239.0K	16%	for Brian Fitzpatrick
EDF ACTION VOTES	R	$136.7K	9%	for Brian Fitzpatrick
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$134.9K	9%	for Brian Fitzpatrick
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	R	$127.0K	9%	for Brian Fitzpatrick
MAKE THE ROAD ACTION INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEE	D	$54.5K	4%	for Ashley Ehasz
API PA VOTES	D	$18.2K	1%	for Ashley Ehasz
REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM FOR ALL FREEDOM FUND	D	$16.6K	1%	for Ashley Ehasz
INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC.	D	$8.8K	1%	for Ashley Ehasz
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$6.0K	0%	for Ashley Ehasz

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R5

CNalysis

Likely R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Dec 11

Elections Daily

Likely R

Feb 4

Inside Elections

Likely R

Dec 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel

May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-30

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks