Races · house · 2024 · Oregon

house · open seat

Andrea Salinas vs Mike Erickson

← Oregon house Pennsylvania house →

Likely DD +14.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Salinas (D)
1% Erickson (R)
Win probability
Andrea Salinas99% (D)
Mike Erickson1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +14.0
80% CID+2.0 → D+26.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +14.0 · 80% CI D+2.0 → D+26.0
Actual result D+6.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.0 (10th pctile) to D+26.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +14.0

80% CI: D +2.0 → D +26.0 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+6.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DAndrea Salinas0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMike Erickson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IAndrew Aasen0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-18

Mike EricksonH2OR06124 ↗

Receipts

$1.2M

Disburse

$1.2M

Cash on hand

$69.82

Debts

$3.3M

Top industries

Crop production$6.6K

Top contributors

PACIFIC LUMBER CO$9.6K

FRONTIER ENTERPRISES$6.6K

TIME AUTO GROUP, INC$6.6K

PACIFIC OFFICE AUTOMATION$6.6K

FRERES LUMBER$6.6K

Andrea SalinasH2OR06066 ↗

Receipts

$5.4M

Disburse

$5.3M

Cash on hand

$61.5K

Debts

Top industries

Govt employees$15.2K

Internet$9.2K

Education$7.1K

Health professionals$6.6K

Top contributors

STATE OF OREGON$15.2K

THE ADVOCATE GROUP$11.6K

ARIES ENGINEERING INC OREGON$9.9K

KAFOURY & MCDOUGAL$9.9K

FAIRSING VINEYARD$9.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.3M

D side

$1.1M · 84%

R side

$202.7K · 16%

Top spender

CHC BOLD PAC

For / against split

For Salinas $74.8K

Against Erickson $1.0M

Against Salinas $201.6K

For Erickson $1.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CHC BOLD PAC	D	$1.0M	79%	against Mike Erickson
OREGONIANS FOR TRUTH AND ACCOUNTABILITY PAC	R	$201.6K	16%	against Andrea Salinas
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	D	$34.4K	3%	for Andrea Salinas
WORKING AMERICA	D	$33.1K	3%	for Andrea Salinas
GET OUT THE VOTE PAC	D	$5.8K	0%	for Andrea Salinas
OREGON RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY PAC	R	$1.1K	0%	for Mike Erickson
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	D	$829.3	0%	for Andrea Salinas

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D1

Likely D4

CNalysis

Likely D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Oct 31

Elections Daily

Likely D

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Safe D

Oct 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks