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Races · house · 2024 · Oregon
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Brilliant Corners vs Lori Chavez-DeRemer

← Oregon houseOregon house →
Lean RR +3.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
30% Corners (D)
70% Chavez-DeRemer (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +3.2 · 80% CI R+15.2 → D+8.8
Actual result R+2.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 70% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.2 (10th pctile) to D+8.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 70% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +3.2
80% CI: R +15.2 → D +8.8 · win prob 30%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+2.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RLori Chavez-DeRemer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBrilliant Corners0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12
Lori Chavez-DeRemerH2OR05209 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$60.6M
D side
$38.6M · 64%
R side
$22.0M · 36%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Bynum $8.7M
Against Chavez-DeRemer $29.9M
Against Bynum $20.2M
For Chavez-DeRemer $1.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$14.9M25%against Lori Chavez-DeRemer
314 ACTION FUNDD$11.9M20%against Lori Chavez-DeRemer
DCCCD$1.0M2%against Lori Chavez-DeRemer
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUNDR$712.9K1%for Lori Chavez-DeRemer
DMFI PACD$569.4K1%against Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tilt D2
Tossup1
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Feb 1
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks