Races · house · 2024 · Oregon

house · open seat

Val Hoyle vs Monique DeSpain

← Oregon house Oregon house →

Safe DD +15.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Hoyle (D)
1% DeSpain (R)
Win probability
Val Hoyle99% (D)
Monique DeSpain1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +15.1
80% CID+3.1 → D+27.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +15.1 · 80% CI D+3.1 → D+27.1
Actual result D+7.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+15.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+3.1 (10th pctile) to D+27.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +15.1

80% CI: D +3.1 → D +27.1 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+7.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DVal Hoyle0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMonique DeSpain0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-01

Val HoyleH2OR04095 ↗

Receipts

$2.7M

Disburse

$2.6M

Cash on hand

$89.4K

Debts

Top industries

Govt employees$7.2K

Top contributors

JACOBS INVESTMENT COMPANY LLC$9.9K

PUBLIC AFFAIRS COUNSEL$8.1K

BGR GROUP$8.0K

STATE OF OREGON$7.2K

METRO WEST AMBULANCE$6.6K

Monique DeSpainH4OR04125 ↗

Receipts

$908.9K

Disburse

$905.6K

Cash on hand

$3.3K

Debts

$3.5K

Top industries

Internet$10.0K

Top contributors

TREMONT PARTNERS$13.2K

BEETHAM FAMILY$13.2K

CPI HOLDINGS$13.2K

MURPHY PLYWOOD$12.4K

FRED WAHL MARINE CONSTRUCTION$12.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$911.3K

D side

$381.8K · 42%

R side

$529.5K · 58%

Top spender

NRCC

For / against split

For Hoyle $35.4K

Against DeSpain $346.4K

Against Hoyle $529.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NRCC	R	$375.4K	41%	against Val Hoyle
HMP	D	$346.4K	38%	against Monique DeSpain
A SAFER STRONGER OREGON PAC	R	$154.1K	17%	against Val Hoyle
WORKING AMERICA	D	$35.2K	4%	for Val Hoyle
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	D	$125	0%	for Val Hoyle
JDCA PAC	D	$48.9	0%	for Val Hoyle

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D1

Likely D4

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Feb 1

Elections Daily

Likely D

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Likely D

Sep 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-01

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks