Races · house · 2024 · Oklahoma

house · open seat

Kody Macaulay vs Paul Bondar

← Oklahoma house Oklahoma house →

Safe RR +42.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Macaulay (D)
99% Bondar (R)
Win probability
Kody Macaulay1% (D)
Paul Bondar99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +42.5
80% CIR+54.5 → R+30.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +42.5 · 80% CI R+54.5 → R+30.5
Actual result R+37.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+17) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+42.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+54.5 (10th pctile) to R+30.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +42.5

80% CI: R +54.5 → R +30.5 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+37.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RPaul Bondar0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DKody Macaulay0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-21

Paul BondarH4OK00026 ↗

Receipts

$5.7M

Disburse

$5.6M

Cash on hand

$88.8K

Debts

$5.6M

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

BDJ$3.3K

ARKOMA COMPANIES$2.5K

CAPITAL PREMIUM FINANCING$1.0K

CASH CITY JEWELRY &LOAN$1.0K

Kody MacaulayOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$24.3K

Disburse

$27.8K

Cash on hand

$-3,960.81

Debts

$4.0K

Top industries

Internet$3.3K

Lawyers / law firms$450

Casinos / gambling$222

Top contributors

GOOGLE$3.3K

OU COLLEGE OF LAW$450

METCO$250

PROCURE$250

CASS COMMUNICATIONS MGMT INC$222

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

—

For / against split

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Feb 1

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

May 31

Elections Daily

Safe R

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe R

Mar 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-21

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks