Races · house · 2024 · Ohio
house · open seat
Doug Bugie vs Max Miller
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+36.8 (10th pctile) to R+12.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.8
80% CI: R +36.8 → R +12.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+15.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRMax Miller0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDoug Bugie0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IDennis Kucinich0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-04Max MillerH2OH16051 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$174.5K
Debts
$1.0M
Top industries
Securities & investment$36.7K
Securities & investment · $36.7K
- Blackstone · $23.8K
- Apollo Global Management · $12.9K
Individuals $36.7K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$9.9K
Lawyers / law firms · $9.9K
- Jones Day · $9.9K
Individuals $9.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$23.8K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$12.9K
THE NRP GROUP$9.9K
JONES DAY$9.9K
STANDARD INDUSTRIES$7.6K
Dennis KucinichH4OH07056 ↗
Receipts
$538.9K
Disburse
$534.9K
Cash on hand
$4.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
GEORGE GROUP GREAT NORTHERN$13.2K
RICK CASE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP$9.9K
DCL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT$8.3K
CMI GROUP$6.8K
MARGARET WONG AND ASSOCIATES$6.8K
Doug Bugie
Receipts
$55.8K
Disburse
$55.7K
Cash on hand
$78.9
Debts
$37.0K
Top industries
Real estate$250
Real estate · $250
- Sawicki Realty · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Insurance$250
Insurance · $250
- Ssip Insurance · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Top contributors
WEBER & CO$1.5K
CHAMBERS DENTISTRY$1.0K
AROOW$1.0K
NEXT LEVEL EXCHANGE$1.0K
MWPD INC$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$264.0K
D side
$38.5K · 15%
R side
$225.5K · 85%
Top spender
JOBS & PROSPERITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOBS & PROSPERITY PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $217.8K | 83% | for Max Miller |
| MAHA ALLIANCE super pac · boosts D
| D | $77.0K | 29% | against Max Miller |
| NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.6K | 2% | for Max Miller |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $3.0K | 1% | for Max Miller |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Mar 11
- Cook Political Report · Mar 4
- Elections Daily · Feb 4
- Inside Elections · Feb 29
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 27
CNalysis
Safe RCook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks